ဗီယက်နမ်ကမ်းခြေ အရှေ့တောင်ဘက်ပင်လယ်ရေပြင်မှာ INVEST-97W ဖြစ်နေကြောင်းတွေ့ရပြီး GFS ensemble model(GEFS)က ဆက်လက်ရွေ့လျားနိုင်မည့် လမ်းကြောင်းကို ခန့်မှန်းဖေါ်ပြထားပါတယ်။
ECMWF Cyclone Genesis Chart မှာ ကပ္ပလီပင်လယ်နှင့် ဘင်္ဂလားပင်လယ်အော်အတွင်း ဧပြီလ ၃ ရက်နေ့မှ စတင်၍လေဖိအားနည်းရပ်ဝန်းဖြစ်ပေါ်ပြီး မုန်တိုင်းအဆင့်သို့ရောက်ရှိနိုင်ချေ ၄၀% ရှိနေကြောင်း၊ ဧပြီ ၄ ရက်နှင့် ၅ ရက်နေ့များမှာ မုန်တိုင်းအဆင့်သို့ရောက်ရှိနိုင်ချေ ၆၀% ဖြစ်လာကြောင်း ဖေါ်ပြနေတာတွေ့ရပါတယ်။
Windy GFS model ရဲ့ ကြိုတင်ခန့်မှန်းချက်မှာတော့ ဧပြီလ ၅ ရက်နေ့မှာ ဘင်္ဂလားပင်လယ်အော်အတွင်း ရောက်ရှိလာမည့် တောင်တရုတ်ပင်လယ်ဘက်မှ ထိုင်းပင်လယ်ကွေ့ကို ဖြတ်ကျော်ပြီးကပ္ပလီပင်လယ်ကို ဝင်ရောက်လာနိုင်သည့်(INVEST-97W)သည် သိသာထင်ရှားတဲ့ လေဖိအားနည်းရပ်ဝန်းအဆင့်ရောက်လာနိုင်ကြောင်း၊ မြောက်ဘက်-ဘင်္ဂလားပင်လယ်အော်အရှေ့အလယ်ပိုင်းဆီသို့ ဆက်လက်ရွေ့နိုင်ကြောင်းခန့်မှန်ထားတာတွေ့ရပါတယ်။
လတ်တလောရရှိထားတဲ့ ကြိုတင်ခန့်မှန်းချက်တွေအရ တောင်တရုတ်ပင်လယ်ဘက်မှ INVEST-97W သည် ကပ္ပလီပင်လယ်နဲ့ ဘင်္ဂလားပင်လယ်အော် အရှေ့တောင်ပိုင်းကို ဝင်ရောက်လာနိုင်ပြီး မြောက်ဘက်ကို ဆက်လက်ရွေ့လျားနိုင်တာကြောင့် လမ်းကြောင်းအားဖြင့် မြန်မာနိုင်ငံဘက်ကိုဦးတည်သည်ဖြစ်စေ၊ ဦးတည်ရွေ့လျားခြင်းမရှိသည်ဖြစ်စေ လမ်းကြောင်းညာဘက်မှာရှိနေတဲ့ မြန်မာနိုင်ငံအနေနဲ့ လေဖိအားနည်းရပ်ဝန်းအရှိသက်ရောက်မှုကို ခံရမှာဖြစ်တာကြောင့် …
မြစ်ဝကျွန်းပေါ်ကမ်းရိုးတန်း၊ ရခိုင်ကမ်းရိုးတန်း၊ ဧရာဝတီတိုင်းနဲ့ ရန်ကုန်တိုင်းအပြင် ပဲခူးတိုင်းအနောက်ခြမ်းဒေသတွေမှာပါ လေ/မိုး/လှိုင်း အသင့်အတင့်မှပြင်းထန်နိုင်တဲ့ အခြေအနေများဖြစ်ပေါ်နိုင်ပါတယ်။
ဧပြီလ ၃ ရက်နေ့မှာ ကပ္ပလီပင်လယ်အတွင်းဝင်ရောက်လာနိုင်မဲ့ INVEST-97W ကို ဆက်လက်စောင့်ကြည့်တင်ပြပေးသွားပါမယ်။
လေဖိအားနည်းရပ်ဝန်း(သို့မဟုတ်)မုန်တိုင်းရယ်လို့ ဖြစ်လာသေးတာမဟုတ်ဘဲ ကြိုတင်ခန့်မှန်းချက်မှာသာရှိနေဆဲဆိုတာ မှတ်သားထားဘို့လိုပါမယ်။
Source – မိုးလေဝသ ပညာရှင် ဦးဝင်းနိုင်
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